Oscars Academy Award Winners - Red Carpet Photos

Best Picture   Argo   (a clear prediction)

Best Director     Steven Speilberg, Lincoln     (this one is really close, with Ang Lee, Life of Pi right behind, and others not far behind that - in part because the nomination process snubbed the "clear" predicted winners, and as Silver says, "you can’t claim to have a data-driven prediction when you don’t have any data.")

Best Actress   Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook   (although Jessica Chatain, Zero Dark Thirty is a close second)

Best Actor     Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln         (no contest)

Best Supporting Actress     Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables    (also no contest)

Best Supporting Actor     Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln         (less confidence there; Silver considers this the most competitive category)

Predictions by:  Nate Silver . His statistical model for pooling the polling data in the US presidential election, is now being used to predict this other important political campaign: The Academy Awards.